“The ‘Antarctica Factor’ turns out to be the greatest risk, and also the greatest uncertainty, for sea-levels around the globe,” says lead-author Anders Levermann from the Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Columbia University’s LDEO in New York. “While we saw about 19 centimeters of sea-level rise in the past 100 years, Antarctic ice-loss could lead to up to 58 centimeter within this century. Coastal planning cannot merely rely on the best guess. It requires a risk analysis. Our study provides exactly that: The sea level contribution of Antarctica is very likely not going to be more than 58 centimeters.”
Thermal expansion of the ocean water under global warming and melting of mountain glaciers, which to date have been the most important factors for sea-level rise, will come on top of the contribution from Antarctic ice-loss. The overall sea-level rise risk is thus even bigger, yet the ‘Antarctica Factor’ is about to become the most important one, according to the study now published in the journal Earth System Dynamics of the European Geosciences Union (EGU).