Media, press, pundits and politicians in the US today keep hyping the US economy as doing well. We hear the US economy is growing nicely, better than other economies at least. Wages are finally rising, and full employment is here. Jack bunks these and other myths about the US economy on the eve of the US election, and explains why a recession in 2017-18 is increasingly likely. Explained are why the US GDP growth rate for the first half of 2016 was really only 0.65%, thus nearly stagnant, and real income growth was even lower at 0.1%, or on net stagnant (with wage and income growth for top 10% but declining at median and below 70 million). Jack reviews household consumption growth, the only indicator, keeping the economy from recession, and predicts it is about to falter. The recent PMI data for manufacturing and services, investment, and auto sales are reviewed. The show concludes with an explanation why wage growth figures are misrepresenting and biased toward upper end and full time employment, benefitting 20 million, but wage stagnation and decline is the fact for 70 million at the median and below. US part time, temp, independent contract, unincorporated self employed, gig economy, and the underground economy now comprise close to half of the US labor force today (60-70 million), up from 33% a decade ago.
