Trends This Week – False faith, not hard data, boosting markets. Can it last? – 02.17.16

Trend forecaster Gerald Celente lays it on the table, dissecting why the bounce back in markets the last few days is bunk. After equity markets worldwide suffered one of the worst starts of a new year in history, stocks suddenly rebounded. For example, the Nikkei closed out last week at its lowest level since October 2014. But what economic fundamentals spiked prices higher this week? Was it the dismal news that Japan’s economy contracted 1.4 percent in the last quarter? No. What boosted  stocks prices was the twisted rationale that despite the Bank of Japan firing two rounds of blanks from its “monetary bazooka,” the lousy Gross Domestic Product number was cause to launch yet another round of stimulus. Before Chinese markets opened Monday after being closed for a week, the Shanghai Index had fallen 47 percent since its peak in June. Was it on the rotten news that China’s exports fell 11.2 percent in January and imports plunged 18.8 percent that markets rallied? No. As with Japan, the dismal data was taken as a positive sign that the People’s Bank of China would take bold measures to boost sluggish growth.  “Confidence,” trust the effectiveness of the rigged market game,  not economic fundamentals, was the rationale for stocks suddenly moving higher. Tuesday’s New York Times headline summed it up: “Global Shares Buoyed by Investor Faith.” Yes, faith in more failed central-bank stimulus and stock and bond buyback sideshows… not faith in true price discovery and robust Gross Domestic product growth.

 

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