According to an October Rasmussen poll, 38% of likely voters say they intend to vote for “someone other than President Trump or the Democratic presidential nominee” in the 2020 US presidential election.
In a three-way presidential race, 38% constitutes a winning plurality, assuming it’s distributed among the states such that the Electoral College outcome reflects it.
As a long-time activist in America’s largest “third” political party, the Libertarian Party, I’m prone to find that number encouraging.
On the other hand, I’ve seen numbers like this before and I’ve watched them not pan out on election day. Here’s why