Below you'll find a list of all posts that have been tagged as “Emerging markets”
With New Year celebrations barely in the rear view mirror, foreboding storm clouds are once again forming along the horizon. The blackening skies are casting a dour mood over 2016, which in its mere infancy seems all but assured to see deepening global tumult, conflict, and crisis. At the root of this palpable disquiet lies the still fragile state of …
The move raises critical questions about the global economy for 2016, already slowing significantly since 2014. Further global slowdown is now almost certain in 2016 – with global oil prices now in the mid-US$35 range and projected to go lower, with commodity prices globally still deflating, with Europe’s economy continuing barely growing and Japan’s in yet another recession, and with …
International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde offered a bleak economic forecast for 2016 and beyond in a guest column published Wednesday in the German financial newspaper Handelsblatt . The IMF head wrote that global economic growth next year would be “disappointing” and the outlook for the medium term had also deteriorated. Lagarde pointed to the continuing slowdown in China …
Jack takes a look at the key economic developments of the past week, and then provides the first of a several part analysis this month of the global economy explaining why it is becoming more unstable, both financially and economically—i.e. more ‘systemically fragile’. The analysis of the global economy is based on his just released new book, ‘Systemic Fragility in the Global Economy’ by Clarity Press. (see Jack’s blog, jackrasmus.com, where and how to order). Part 1 on today’s show identifies nine major anomalies that have appeared in the global economy today that mainstream economists can’t or don’t answer—which the new book attempts to explain. Jack reviews chapters 1 and 2, on the topic of the ‘dead cat bounce’ temporary recovery that began 2010-2013 in China and emerging market economies, which has been in decline once again since 2014. Stagnation in Europe and Japan, slow growth in the US, and ‘hard landings’ coming in China and emerging markets are now the prospect, after the ‘dead cat’ global economy has had its bounce. The ‘week in review’ commentary on the show addresses the renewed global oil price decline, junk bond fund defaults, China’s Yuan as global currency, Japan’s falsified GDP revisions, Yahoo’s effort to avoid paying $10 billion in US taxes, and the US Senate’s posturing about pharmaceutical drug company price rip-offs.
Listeners interested in enrolling in an online 8-week course starting in January on Jack’s new book, provided by the progressive-left ‘World Institute for Social Change’ (WISC) ‘Z School’, should check out the WISC website at:https://zcomm.org/zschool/moodle/ for more information. Free copies of the first two chapters of the book are available at the site.
A review of three just released reports that indicate the US and global economy is in much worst shape than the hype flowing from political and business media sources. Today’s US jobs report showed a sharp reduction in the rate of private sector job growth in the US economy for the past three months, as labor force and wage growth continue to stagnate as well. Jack explains why the official data is even worse than reported. A second report by the World Trade Organization indicates global trade is retreating fast, growing much less than global GDP which is itself slowing fast. According to estimates, global trade may have even contracted in the first half of 2015. Jack explains how a global recession in trade and industrial production (manufacturing, mining, utility output) may have already begun, with global services eventually to follow. Conditions in Europe, Japan, China, and the ‘perfect storm’ accelerating in Emerging Markets from latin America to Asia to Africa are reviewed. Next week’s IMF report on the growing crisis in the global economy, centered on emerging markets and China, is previewed. In the context of these developments, Jack explains how his new, forthcoming book, ‘Systemic Fragility in the Global Economy’, by Clarity Press, due out in November provides a theoretical and empirical explanation of the conditions and where the economy is headed, and how the book is different fundamentally from analyses provided by both mainstream economists or Marxist economists.’
The Federal Reserve is flailing and global currency markets are in disarray. Notably, the Brazilian real dropped more than 10% in five sessions, before Thursday’s sharp recovery reversed much of the week’s loss. This week the Colombian peso dropped 3.0%, and the Chilean peso fell 3.1%. The Mexican peso dropped 1.9%. The Malaysian ringgit sank 4.5% for the week, with …
Imagine your doctor put you on a daily dose of oxycontin, phenobarbital and Quaaludes for six years straight. Then he suddenly cancelled your prescription. Do you think your behavior might become a bit erratic? This is what’s going on with the stock market. It’s trying to shake off six years of overmedication brought on by the Fed’s zero rates and …
Shortly after the PBoC’s move to devalue the yuan, we noted with some alarm that it looked as though China may have drawn down its reserves by more than $100 billion in the space of just two weeks. That, we went on the point out, would represent a stunning increase over the previous pace of the country’s reserve draw down, which …
Housing markets are prone to the bandwagon effect, they continue rising when the fundamentals vanish, a year, maybe two years before. Stock market and commodity price volatility and declines are currently chronicled ad-nausea by the press without seeing the dramatic upswing of international property price falls. What is alarming is the pace of price declines. Even countries where prices are not falling, …
Capitalism is often touted as the most dynamic marketplace performer capable of lifting more boats faster than any other — but why then do we see its colossal failures as a stable and equitable driver of well-being for the vast majority of its practitioners? Ellen speaks with one of the most knowledgeable economic experts on economic systems, Dr. Richard Wolff, about how capitalism fails in part because of its anti-democratic underpinnings that rock many of those boats and swamp others while letting the captains of capital cruise on. We also talk about the emerging popularity of Quantitative Easing for the People and the importance of values-driven common cause for change.
